educated guess

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Nonetheless I think it’s an educated guess to say that social relationships have been and continue to be the primary predictor of human happiness.
尽管如此，我们也能有根据的推测，社会关系一直以来也将继续作为人类幸福程度的风向标。
The RUP consultant takes an educated guess regarding what RUP artifacts and roles are needed in the organization and fills in all the responsibilities in a Responsibility Matrix.
RUP 顾问对组织中需要什么 RUP 工件和角色进行有根据的推测，并填写职责矩阵中的所有职责。
Not only it is painfully hard to account for all the variables that could possibly impact the project, but also the confidence interval itself can be little more than an educated guess.
不仅需要痛苦地努力计算可能影响项目的所有变量，而且可信区间本身与推测之间没有太大差别了。

We add up the goods, subtract the bads-- whatever our favorite list is-- and we come to our best educated guess about the rival evaluations of not just lives as a whole, but chunks of lives.
我们把好事加起来减去坏事-,不管我们最喜欢哪些事-,我们不但可以据理推测,一生期间其他生活的价值，还能推测某段时间其他生活的价值。
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Of course, my educated guess about how intelligence enhancement might come about could be wrong.
FORBES: Is Ethical Human Genetic Enhancement Possible?
And that number--published by the New York tabloids--is little more than an educated guess made on the back of a napkin.
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It forces him to make a diagnosis based on how the heart sounds, an educated guess that might be considered insurance fraud.
FORBES: The Health Insurer Could Be A Better Friend

a guess that is made using judgment and a particular level of knowledge and is therefore more likely to be correct

An educated guess is a guess that is based on a certain amount of knowledge and is therefore likely to be correct.